National Democratic Institute for International Affairs

Montenegro

Key Findings

Track Seven

24 April 2002

INTRODUCTION

The following report is a presentation and analysis of key findings from NDI’s seventh and final tracking survey. It follows a baseline survey conducted in March 2001 and six tracking surveys conducted in April, June, September and November 2001 and February and March 2002. The report represents the eighth in a series of NDI political research in Montenegro in 2001 and 2002.

This research project is the property of the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs (NDI), a nonprofit organization based in Washington, DC with offices throughout the world working to strengthen and expand democracy worldwide. The project is supported by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).

Its primary purpose is to assist NDI’s partners – the political parties in Montenegro – to improve their ability to represent the interests of and communicate with the people of Montenegro. The research project is part of a political party assistance program conducted by NDI whose goal is to support the development of a democratic multi-party political system.

Between 11 and 16 April, 1,273 residents of Montenegro participated in face-to-face interviews designed to measure their attitudes about current political issues of interest in Montenegro. The interviews were conducted in each of Montenegro’s 21 municipalities. In this report, the municipalities have been grouped into four regions:

· North includes Niksic, Pljevlja, Pluzine, Savnik and Zabljak

· Central includes Cetinje, Danilovgrad and Podgorica

· East includes Andrijevica, Berane, Bijelo Polje, Kolasin, Mojkovac, Plav and Rozaje

· Coast includes Bar, Budva, Herceg Novi, Kotor, Tivat and Ulcinj.

Prism Research, a polling firm established in Australia with offices throughout the region, conducted the fieldwork. The margin of error on a sample of 1,200 is +/- 3 percent.

In the United States, Canada and Western Europe, political parties conduct public opinion surveys in order to test the public attitudes regarding topical issues of the day. Results are then used to develop plans to communicate with the public. If the planning is done effectively and implemented, a political party can successfully compete in elections. In this context, public opinion surveys are not used as a means of predicting the outcome of any upcoming elections. This report should equally be viewed as an assessment of public attitudes in Montenegro at the moment and not as a predictor of the outcome of any upcoming elections.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The current survey is the first NDI research conducted since the Agreement between Serbia and Montenegro was signed in Belgrade on 14 March, causing the Liberal Alliance to withdraw its support for the minority government. Then, after the Montenegrin parliament approved the Agreement on 9 April, the Social Democratic Party withdrew its ministers from government. At the federal level, the Yugoslav Parliament adopted the Law on Cooperation with the Hague Tribunal on 11 April. And, finally, during the conduct of the field research, there was a great deal of news about political party negotiations on pre-election coalitions in advance of the municipal elections that will be conducted in 19 of 21 municipalities on 15 May 2002.

In this atmosphere and since mid-March, support for the government fell 7 percent and trust in the government’s ability to implement specific reform initiatives fell as much as 8 percent. Similarly, trust in federal and republican institutions fell from 5-8 percent.

With the issue of Montenegro’s state status resolved for the moment, the most important issues for voters when choosing a party to vote for in parliamentary elections remains the economic situation, unemployment and start-up of industry. At 65 percent, the importance of the economy as an issue has increased a dramatic 14 percent since March 2002 and 30 percent since June 2001. Other issues considered important are state status (11 percent) and corruption (7 percent). Less than five percent of respondents choose any other issue as important for deciding which party to vote for.

While respondents were fairly evenly divided on their interpretation of the Serbian-Montenegrin Agreement, there was overwhelming support for the negotiated provisions. A full 79 percent of respondents agreed with the statement: “Regardless of the details, things are finally resolved – at least for the next three years.”

The Economy is the Priority

With the issue of state status resolved, the importance of the economy is paramount. A full 65 percent identify the economic situation, unemployment and start-up of industry as the most important issues in deciding for which party to vote, while only 11 percent identify state status and 7 percent corruption. The second most important issue in choosing a party for which to vote is state status (22 percent), the economy (17 percent) and corruption (12 percent).

Nevertheless, support for the government has fallen below 50 percent and confidence in the ability of the government to implement reforms, such as restarting industrial production, eliminating the grey market economy and solving citizen’s housing problems is below 50 percent. Most confidence (54 percent) is expressed in the government efforts to reform the tax system. Looking ahead, respondents identify the need for laws against corruption (41 percent) as the most important economic reform priority.

The Serbian-Montenegrin Agreement

Only 27 percent of respondents believe that the Agreement represents a long-term solution to Serbian-Montenegrin relations. And, while 26 percent say that the Agreement preserves the status quo for the next three years, 25 percent say that it provides the foundation for re-building a common state on a new basis. Another 22 percent say that the Agreement establishes a framework for maintaining the Federation, while a remaining 21 percent say that the Agreement represents a significant step toward the restoration of Montenegro’s sovereignty. A full 86 percent of respondents agree with the Agreement’s provision that requires Montenegro and Serbia to bring their economic systems into alignment with EU standards, while only 70 percent agree with the provision that establishes a unicameral parliament, president, council of ministers and a court. Three-quarters (75 percent) of respondents believe that the Agreement will facilitate Montenegro’s integration with Europe and 79 percent are relieved that the issue has finally been resolved.

Considering the government crisis that has been caused by the signing of the Agreement, 55 percent of respondents believe that new parliamentary elections should be held as soon as possible, while 25 percent favor a reconstituted government with the participation of the Liberal Alliance. Now that the Agreement has been signed, 54 percent of respondents identify “providing citizens with a chance for economic survival and an improvement of living standards” as a priority for the attention of political leaders.

Future Vote Intentions

If parliamentary elections had been held in mid-April, 41 percent would have voted for the parties that constitute the coalition “Victory is Montenegro’s, Democratic Coalition Milo Djukanovic” (PjCG) – Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) and Social Democratic Party (SDP). And, 41 percent would have voted for the parties that constitute the “Together for Yugoslavia” coalition (ZZJ), comprised of the Socialist People’s Party (SNP), the People’s Party (NS), and the Serb People’s Party (SNS). Thirteen (13) percent would have voted for the Liberal Alliance. This result represents a 4 percent decline since March 2002 in support for the parties that constitute the PjCG coalition.

The party choice for the upcoming municipal elections mirrors the party choice for a potential parliamentary election. And, as the parties negotiated regarding pre-election coalitions, respondents supporting the pro-independence bloc were only 43 percent in favor of these coalitions, while pro-federation supporters were 65 percent in favor of such coalitions.

Ethnic/National Identification: The Defining Division

Consistent with previous surveys, individual ethnic/national identity remains the major factor defining differences of opinion in Montenegro – although these divisions appear to have weakened somewhat. When compared to “all” respondents, those who identify themselves as Montenegrins are generally about 10 percent more positive about the current direction of the republic and the governing political leadership, while Muslims tend to be 20-25 percent more positive than “all” respondents. In contrast, those identifying themselves as Serbs are on average 20 percent or more negative than “all” respondents about the direction and leadership of the governing forces.

Other Demographic and Geographic Factors

For the first time, it is notable that women are more focused than men on the economic fundamentals and less interested in continued political polarization. Additionally, those living in the Northern municipalities and those with the lowest incomes are relatively more dissatisfied with the current situation in Montenegro, while those earning 901 DMs or more and those living in the Eastern municipalities are most supportive of the current political leadership and political initiatives of the republic government.

THE GOVERNING INSTITUTIONS AND THEIR REFORM EFFORTS

The government and parliament elected in April 2001 have worked together to promote a number of reform initiatives. At the same time, the signing of the Agreement has caused a government crisis, which may precipitate early parliamentary elections. This survey explored respondent opinions about the government, its initiatives and trust in institutions.

For the first time since June, support for the government is less than 50 percent.

Asked about the work of municipal governments, only 25 percent of respondents were satisfied with the work of their municipal governments, while 42 percent were dissatisfied. Dissatisfaction with municipal government is highest in the Northern municipalities of Niksic, Pluzine, Pljevlja, Savnik and Zabljak.

Asked to identify those most responsible for pollution in Montenegro, 36 percent identified citizens, 25 percent industries and business, 20 percent the Republican government and only 15 percent local governments. It is interesting to note that those living in the Northern municipalities are more likely to identify industry and business as responsible for pollution in Montenegro.

Respondents were asked to what degree they believed that the following initiatives would be implemented and yield results. Trust in the government’s efforts to eliminate the grey market and to restart industrial production, as well as its master plan for tourism, have declined by 8 percent since March 2002.

Initiatives explored included:

MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES

Respondents were asked to name the most important issue in determining for which party to vote. The options were:

· economic situation/

unemployment/start up of industry,

· international financial assistance,

· corruption,

· interethnic relations,

· non-payment of salaries/pensions,

· state status of Montenegro (independence or continued federation),

· relations with Serbia,

· rights of peoples to which I belong,

· Orthodox church,

· privatization,

· tourism,

· something else.

The economic situation remains the most important issue – a dramatic 53 points ahead of any other issue. The importance of state status has fallen 10 percent since March and 19 percent since November.

Respondents were then asked to name the second most important issue in determining for which party to vote. The options remained the same and were:

· economic situation/

unemployment/start up of industry,

· international financial assistance,

· corruption,

· interethnic relations,

· non-payment of salaries/pensions,

· state status of Montenegro (independence or continued federation),

· relations with Serbia,

· rights of peoples to which I belong,

· Orthodox church,

· privatization,

· tourism,

· something else.

As a second most important issue, the economic situation has fallen 5 percent – but, when combined with the first choice, demonstrates that a full 82 percent of respondents consider the economic situation as an

important factor in choosing a party for which to vote.

REFORM PRIORITIES: MARKET ECONOMIC SYSTEM

In terms of establishment of a market economic system in Montenegro, respondents were asked to identify the priority reform given the following six choices. Since April 2001, laws to combat corruption have increased 12 percent as a priority.

REFORM PRIORITIES: DEMOCRATIC SYSTEM

In terms of the establishment of a functioning democratic system in Montenegro, respondents identified development of democratic values as the most important priority for reform among the options offered.

AGREEMENT ON RESTRUCTURING RELATIONS BETWEEN SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO

Respondents were asked to select one of four statements that reflected their understanding of the agreement. The options given were:

· A framework for maintaining the Federation has been established.

· The Agreement preserves the status quo for the next three years.

· The Agreement represents a significant step toward the restoration of Montenegro’s sovereignty.

· The Agreement provides the foundation for re-building a common state between Montenegro and Serbia on a new basis.

PROVISIONS IN THE AGREEMENT

Respondents were asked whether they agreed or disagreed with several key provisions in the agreement. In abbreviated form, the provisions were:

· Obligation to bring economic systems into alignment with EU standards

· Conscripts serve military service in their member state

· Guaranteed parity representation in international organizations

· Current level of economic reforms is the starting point for regulating mutual economic relations

· EU will assist in harmonization of trade and customs policy

· After three years, either member state can decide to withdraw

· The new state will have a parliament, president, council of ministers and court

OTHER ISSUES RELATED TO THE AGREEMENT

Respondents were asked whether they considered the Agreement to be a long-term solution or a transitional one – and, 27 percent judged it to be a long-term solution, while 65 percent considered it to be transitional.

Given that politicians on all sides have said a great deal about the Agreement, the survey tested several commonly heard statements asking respondents whether they agreed or disagreed with the statement.

STATEMENT	AGREE	DISAGREE
1. Regardless of the details, things are finally resolved – at least for the next three years	79%	21%
2. The Agreement opens real possibilities for integration with Europe	77%	23%
3. The fact that the EU helped negotiate the agreement means its implementation will speed up our membership in that body	75%	25%
4. The Agreement signed in Belgrade was the most that Montenegro could achieve given the political divisions in Montenegro	68%	32%
5. Things are finally stabilized, which will be attractive to investment and tourism once again	67%	33%
6. The essence of Yugoslavia has been preserved even if the name has changed	63%	37%
7. The Agreement represents an important victory for keeping Yugoslavia together	56%	44%

When respondents were asked what should be done about the government crisis that resulted from signing of the Agreement, 55 percent believed that new elections should be held as soon as possible, 10 percent that new elections should be held in the autumn and 25 percent that the Government coalition should be renegotiated with the participation of the Liberal Alliance.

Now that the Agreement has been signed and approved by the parliaments, 54 percent of respondents identify the politicians’ priority to be to “provide citizens with the chance for economic survival and improvement of living standards.” Another 18 percent believe the politicians need to “protect Montenegro’s chance to become an independent state;” and, 17 percent that the political priority is “to lead reforms that establish a democratic state with a functioning market economy.” Asked which solution will enable the politicians to focus on these priorities, 36 percent of respondents identify new elections, 26 percent a government made up of the parties supporting Montenegrin sovereignty and only 12 percent the establishment of a concentration government (i.e., a government of all parliamentary parties).
VOTER INTENTION

Respondents were asked for which party they would vote if parliamentary elections had been held in mid-April. The responses are as follows.

For municipal elections, the result is largely unchanged although 12 percent give no answer and only 4 percent are undecided.

* All other parties received less than 2 percent of support among respondents sampled.

* No answer includes responses: no answer, not for any and do not intend to vote.

*Undecided respondents and respondents that did not answer are distributed among the parties in the same proportion as decided voters. For example if a party has 20 percent of the decided voters, they receive 20 percent of the undecided voters and non-respondents.

** The adjusted vote intention for DPS and SDP has been combined into the “Victory is Montenegro’s” coalition and for SNP, NS and SNS into the “Together for Yugoslavia” coalition.